Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to hold the office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to hold the office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A notable clause allows the market to resolve immediately to Yes upon an announcement of his resignation or removal, even if the effective departure date falls after the market deadline or is later rescinded. Resolution is primarily grounded in official government statements or statements from Rubio himself, but permits a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary basis, which introduces some discretionary judgement.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of State by December 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also resolves immediately to Yes if his resignation or removal is announced by the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·