Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves positively if Marco Rubio leaves office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the March 31, 2027 deadline, even if the departure takes effect later.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves positively if Marco Rubio leaves office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the March 31, 2027 deadline, even if the departure takes effect later. The early resolution on an announcement rather than actual departure is an important condition to note. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from Rubio or the U.S. government, with a fallback to credible reporting consensus if necessary.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
24%
chance▲ +3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of State by March 31, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution, even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period between market creation and March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal made by the end date will also resolve the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The deciding sources are official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·