Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market does not specify whether the title asks for exactly nine countries or at least nine countries, leaving room for interpretation if the total exceeds nine.
Read the full assessment
The market does not specify whether the title asks for exactly nine countries or at least nine countries, leaving room for interpretation if the total exceeds nine. Additionally, what constitutes a distinct country is not explicitly defined, which could create issues in disputed territories. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting or official government acknowledgment rather than a single authoritative registry, requiring subjective judgment to determine whether contested or covert military operations meet the criteria. The rules also contain detailed technical exclusions—such as disallowing intercepted munitions, surface-to-air strikes, naval shelling, and artillery—that may be difficult to verify conclusively from open-source reporting alone.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on exactly nine different countries in 2026. The market specifically defines what constitutes a 'strike' and which territories are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates qualifying strikes on exactly nine different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory. The strike must be officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within US-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, do not count. Intercepted missiles or drones and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count. Artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations by US ground operatives do not count. The market resolves No if the United States initiates qualifying strikes on any number of countries other than nine. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·