Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining a consensus among credible media reports rather than an official government record or designated registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining a consensus among credible media reports rather than an official government record or designated registry. The rules contain strict weapon exclusions, specifically disqualifying naval shelling, artillery, surface-to-air missiles, and any intercepted drones or missiles even if the resulting debris impacts the ground and causes damage. Additionally, the market does not specify a definitive standard for sovereign country definitions in disputed territories, and participants must note whether the market structure evaluates an exact count of ten or at least ten nations.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on 10 or more different countries' soil during 2026. The market has specific definitions for what constitutes a 'strike' and which territories count.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on 10 or more different countries' soil between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory, officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within US-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET do not count. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count. Artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations by US ground operatives do not qualify. The market resolves No if the United States initiates qualifying strikes on fewer than 10 different countries' soil during the specified period. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·