Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks whether the US will strike 13 countries, but neither the title nor the rules explicitly clarify whether this requires exactly 13 countries or at least 13 countries.
Read the full assessment
The question asks whether the US will strike 13 countries, but neither the title nor the rules explicitly clarify whether this requires exactly 13 countries or at least 13 countries. Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government database or single authoritative index, leaving significant discretion to the decider in determining which media reports qualify and how sovereignty is assigned in disputed territories. The rules clearly define the time window and delineate qualifying strike types, specifically excluding intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, naval shelling, artillery, and ground operations, while attributing strikes on foreign embassies to the host nation rather than the represented nation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States initiates aerial strikes on exactly 13 different countries in 2026, excluding strikes within US territory and certain types of military actions.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the United States initiates drone, missile, or air strikes on exactly 13 different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike is the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory, officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. Strikes within US-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, do not count. Intercepted missiles or drones and surface-to-air missile strikes do not count. Artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations by US ground operatives do not qualify. The market resolves No if the United States initiates qualifying strikes on any number of countries other than 13. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·