Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has straightforward criteria tied to the outcome of the next French presidential election, explicitly accommodating standard two-round runoff mechanics or an early snap election.
Read the full assessment
The market has straightforward criteria tied to the outcome of the next French presidential election, explicitly accommodating standard two-round runoff mechanics or an early snap election. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined by that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolas Dupont-Aignan will win the next French presidential election. The market applies whether the election happens on its expected April 2027 schedule or takes place earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolas Dupont-Aignan wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·