Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly specifies that it resolves based on the winner of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any runoff round.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly specifies that it resolves based on the winner of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any runoff round. Outcome verification initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline is set for December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no winner is determined by then. The criteria and official sources are well-defined, presenting minimal risk of an unexpected resolution.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Marion Maréchal will win the next French presidential election. The market covers the next presidential election regardless of whether it occurs on its scheduled April 2027 timeframe or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marion Maréchal wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the official results from the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior, decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or officially the French Government's Ministry of the Interior if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·