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CryptoCloses · in 1 day$13.8K volumePart of: Bitcoin above ___ on November 15? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 15?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market features clear and deterministic rules.

Read the full assessment

This market features clear and deterministic rules. It identifies an exact data source (Binance BTC/USDT), the specific timeframe and metric (the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 15), and the precise threshold required for a positive outcome. There are no discretionary override clauses or ambiguous definitions.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

35%

chance

▼ −58.5 pts · 24h

Yes35¢
No65¢
70,000 · Yes · 1MO 91.0 H 96.1 L 17.1 C 35.4−55.6 (−61.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −76 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 14:40 UTC

The probability fell from 91% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 0.69% during the move hour on Binance, leaving its price 3.45% below the $70,000 threshold and reducing the likelihood of finishing above that level.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, 65% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.7% in the move hour, −1.4% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: 74,000 (down), 68,000 (down), 76,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 06:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 16:40 UTCThe market rose from 83% to 95% as Bitcoin gained 0.55% in the hour and 1.52% over 24 hours on Binance, increasing the likelihood of remaining above $70,000.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 16:51 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $70,000 on November 15. It resolves strictly using the price from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, disregarding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 15 has a final Close price strictly higher than $70,000. It resolves to No if that Close price is equal to or lower than $70,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source. Resolution is determined strictly by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·