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CryptoCloses · in 1 day$1K volumePart of: Bitcoin above ___ on November 15? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 15?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise and objective resolution criteria. Resolution depends on a specific, named public data feed (the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 15) and explicitly points to the close price metric. There is minimal room for interpretive discretion or timing ambiguity.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

2%

chance

▼ −37.95 pts · 24h

Yes2¢
No98¢
74,000 · Yes · 1MO 62.5 H 67.5 L 0.8 C 1.6−61.0 (−97.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −51 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC

The market fell from 51% to 12% as Bitcoin dropped 0.6% on Binance during the move hour, making the price less likely to stay above $74,000.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 68% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −0.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 76,000 (down), 78,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 21:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +21 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 16:25 UTCThe market rose from 41% to 59% as Bitcoin climbed 0.57% in the hour and 1.52% over 24 hours on Binance, bringing it closer to the $74,000 threshold and making finishing above that level more likely.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 17:50 UTC

Earlier

▼ −13 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe market price dropped from 57% to 45% as Bitcoin fell 1.6% on Binance during the hour of the move, reducing the likelihood of BTC remaining above $74,000.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $74,000 on November 15, specifically evaluated via Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 15 has a final Close price strictly higher than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $74,000. Resolution relies solely on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close price, ignoring other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision matches the source decimal places. Binance BTC/USDT is the deciding source.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·