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CryptoCloses · in 1 day$1.5K volumePart of: Bitcoin above ___ on November 15? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 15?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The market rules specify the exact resolution criteria with high precision.

Read the full assessment

The market rules specify the exact resolution criteria with high precision. Resolution depends entirely on the closing price of the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 15. The exact exchange, trading pair, time zone, timestamp, and chart settings are explicitly named, leaving no room for decider discretion or competing price sources. There are no unusual timeout clauses or early resolution triggers to watch out for.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

<1%

chance

▼ −10.25 pts · 24h

Yes<1¢
No>99¢
76,000 · Yes · 1MO 41.0 H 44.5 L 0.6 C 0.8−40.3 (−98.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −21 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 10:55 UTC

The odds dropped from 23% to 4% as Bitcoin fell 0.6% in the hour on Binance, leaving it about 3.4% below the $76,000 target and making the threshold less likely to be reached.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 45% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −0.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: 74,000 (up), 78,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 16:35 UTC

Earlier

▼ −14 pts · 11 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe market fell from 32% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 1.59% on Binance during the hour of the move, reducing the likelihood of BTC staying above the $76,000 threshold.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −26 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 12:40 UTCThe market fell from 40% to 18% as the November 15 close neared with Bitcoin trading approximately 2.1% below the $76,000 threshold, consistent with time decay.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 16:06 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Market explained

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $76,000 at a specific minute on November 15. Resolution is uniquely tied to the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 15 has a final Close price strictly higher than $76,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or less than $76,000, or if that condition is not met. Resolution relies strictly on Binance BTC/USDT data with 1m candles selected, and price precision matches the decimal places provided by the source.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close price

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·