Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official data directly from the Federal Reserve website, which leaves virtually no discretion to the decider.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official data directly from the Federal Reserve website, which leaves virtually no discretion to the decider. However, there is a discrepancy between the title and the fine print: the question specifically asks if the lower bound reaches 0.5% or lower, but the rules state that the market resolves to Yes if either the lower or the upper bound reaches the specified level. Because the upper bound hits 0.5% before the lower bound does, this distinction alters the threshold required for a positive resolution.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate lower bound will fall to 0.5% or lower before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 0.5% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings count toward resolution. The market resolves to No if the rate bounds do not reach this level by the deadline. The market may resolve as soon as relevant data is published. The Federal Reserve's official website serves as the resolution source.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·