Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The title asks specifically if the Federal Reserve's lower bound will reach 0% or lower, but the resolution text states the market will resolve to Yes if the lower or the upper bound reaches the specified level.
Read the full assessment
The title asks specifically if the Federal Reserve's lower bound will reach 0% or lower, but the resolution text states the market will resolve to Yes if the lower or the upper bound reaches the specified level. If the target range were set to 0.00% to 0.25%, the lower bound hits 0% while the upper bound is 0.25%, but the rule text's inclusion of either bound could cause confusion if an unusual range were established. Aside from this minor phrasing discrepancy between the title and body, the market clearly defines the deadline, allows for emergency rate changes, permits early resolution upon publication, and points directly to official Federal Reserve releases as the deciding source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range reaches 0% or lower before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 0% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled meetings are considered. The market resolves to No if neither bound reaches that level by the deadline. The market may resolve immediately once relevant data showing the reached level is published. The Federal Open Market Committee determines the rate range, and the resolution is based on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·