Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has clear conditions tied to an official authority, the Federal Reserve.
Read the full assessment
The market has clear conditions tied to an official authority, the Federal Reserve. Resolution depends on the target federal funds rate lower or upper bound reaching 2.25% or lower at any point prior to December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET, verified directly via the Federal Reserve website. Emergency rate changes outside scheduled FOMC meetings are explicitly covered, and the market can resolve early as soon as qualifying data is officially published.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate lower or upper bound reaches 2.25% or lower before 2027. Note that the rules permit either the lower or upper bound reaching the level to count, despite the title mentioning the lower bound.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.25% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings are considered. The market resolves to No if the rate does not reach this level by the deadline. The market may resolve as soon as the qualifying data is published. Resolution is determined using the official website of the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·