Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves using the official Federal Reserve website, leaving no room for subjective interpretation.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves using the official Federal Reserve website, leaving no room for subjective interpretation. The target threshold of 2.75% or lower is clearly defined, and the deadline of December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET is exact. The rules explicitly accommodate early resolution upon publication as well as emergency rate moves outside scheduled meetings. Although the rule text references either the lower or upper bound hitting the target rather than strictly the lower bound specified in the question title, reaching a lower bound of 2.75% satisfies both conditions, creating negligible resolution conflict.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate lower or upper bound drops to 2.75% or lower before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.75% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside scheduled FOMC meetings are included. The market resolves to No if the rate does not reach this level by the deadline. The market may resolve early once relevant data is published. The Federal Reserve's official website decides the outcome.
Resolution source
The official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·