Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes clear resolution criteria: any public declaration by Ted Cruz stating he is running for president in the 2028 election before the end of 2026 resolves the market positively, without requiring formal ballot or FEC filings.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes clear resolution criteria: any public declaration by Ted Cruz stating he is running for president in the 2028 election before the end of 2026 resolves the market positively, without requiring formal ballot or FEC filings. The primary determination relies on direct public statements from Cruz himself, though secondary resolution allows for a consensus of credible reporting if necessary, introducing modest evaluator discretion. The deadline is explicitly fixed to December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
5%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ted Cruz will publicly announce a presidential run for the 2028 US presidential election before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ted Cruz announces that he is running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement suffices even if he never actually files an official nomination. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official statements from Ted Cruz, such as speeches or social media, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official statements by the listed individual or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·