Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies heavily on evaluating whether statements from Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting confirm a mutual commitment.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies heavily on evaluating whether statements from Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting confirm a mutual commitment. Because no single official registry or document decides the market, the decider must interpret media consensus. The rules explicitly exclude third-party announcements unless confirmed by both nations, informal backchannel deals, unilateral strike pauses, and agreements limited to only a single facility like the Zaporizhzhia plant. Participants should note that a broad general ceasefire or truce will trigger a positive resolution even if energy infrastructure is not explicitly named, provided it commits both sides to generally suspend strikes.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmation. A broader ceasefire, peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed general suspension of strikes by both countries, whether or not it names energy infrastructure or any specific category of it. It will also qualify if it otherwise includes a mutually agreed suspension of strikes that meets the requirements above. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit commitment to suspend strikes will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in strikes will not be considered an energy ceasefire agreement. Arrangements which only apply to a single facility (e.g. the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant), will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the energy ceasefire officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual energy ceasefire agreement by November 15, 2026. A qualifying agreement requires mutual commitments covering at least a category or geographic area of energy infrastructure, or a general suspension of strikes, rather than a single facility.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed energy ceasefire arrangement by November 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Both nations must commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific category of energy infrastructure (which can be limited to a defined geographic area), or agree to a broader ceasefire or deal that includes a general suspension of strikes. It resolves to Yes even if the agreement takes effect after the deadline, provided it is reached before then. Single-facility arrangements, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, agreements outlining future talks without explicit strike suspensions, and unconfirmed third-party claims do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government statements from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide resolution.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·