Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual agreement suspending strikes on defined categories of energy infrastructure or enter a broader general strike suspension by the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual agreement suspending strikes on defined categories of energy infrastructure or enter a broader general strike suspension by the deadline. Participants should note that resolution relies either on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolving authority significant discretion to evaluate conflicting media reports or unconfirmed leaks. Third-party claims, informal understandings, unilateral pauses, and agreements limited to only a single facility are explicitly excluded, which could lead to disputes if an ambiguous deal or partial local truce is reported without formal bilateral confirmation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
24%
chance▼ −6 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmation. A broader ceasefire, peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed general suspension of strikes by both countries, whether or not it names energy infrastructure or any specific category of it. It will also qualify if it otherwise includes a mutually agreed suspension of strikes that meets the requirements above. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit commitment to suspend strikes will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in strikes will not be considered an energy ceasefire agreement. Arrangements which only apply to a single facility (e.g. the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant), will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the energy ceasefire officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual energy ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires an explicit mutual commitment covering at least one defined category or geographic area of energy infrastructure, rather than informal pauses or single-facility deals.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a qualifying energy ceasefire agreement between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Both nations must commit to suspend strikes on at least one defined category of energy infrastructure or agree to a broader general suspension of strikes. The agreement qualifies even if it takes effect after the deadline, provided it was officially reached before the deadline. Third-party claims, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, future negotiation frameworks, and arrangements limited to only a single facility do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·