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PoliticsCloses · in 15 days$218.8K volumePart of: 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner →

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify all 22 eligible municipal, city, and county executive races and define party affiliation strictly through official party nomination and registration.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify all 22 eligible municipal, city, and county executive races and define party affiliation strictly through official party nomination and registration. Results are anchored to the official Taiwanese Central Election Commission reporting if any reporting consensus is unclear. Key mechanics to note include an early resolution trigger once a party achieves an insurmountable mathematical lead, and a tie-breaking clause that awards victory to whichever tied party appears first in alphabetical order by English name. If election certifications face prolonged delays past June 30, 2027, the market will resolve using whichever partial results are certified by that deadline.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

66%

chance

▲ +5 pts · 24h

Yes66¢
No35¢
Kuomintang (KMT) · Yes · 1MO 75.5 H 79.0 L 58.5 C 65.5−10.0 (−13.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTC

The price fell from 71% to 60% as the event's outcomes repriced together, with the related Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) market moving up as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 43% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 17 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Market explained

This market measures whether official Kuomintang (KMT) candidates win the most mayoral and magistrate seats among Taiwan's specified cities, special municipalities, and counties in the 2026 local elections.

How it resolves

The market resolves Yes if official Kuomintang (KMT) candidates win the greatest number of head of local government seats among the specified 9 cities/special municipalities and 13 counties, or win a tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of party names. Only officially nominated and registered candidates count; independent candidates do not count for any party. A party wins as soon as it is mathematically impossible to be equaled or surpassed. The market resolves No if another party wins the most seats. The market resolves to Other if no relevant election results are known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·