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Watch for: The rules precisely define which 22 mayoral and magistrate elections count, require candidates to be officially nominated and registered with party affiliation, and rely on official Central Election Commission results if reporting varies.
The rules precisely define which 22 mayoral and magistrate elections count, require candidates to be officially nominated and registered with party affiliation, and rely on official Central Election Commission results if reporting varies. However, there are unusual tie-breaking and early resolution mechanics: if two or more parties tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of whichever party comes first alphabetically in English. The market can also resolve early once a mathematical lock is achieved, and if some election results remain unresolved by June 30, 2027, the outcome will be decided using only the seats determined by that date.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
36%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
The price rose from 32% to 42%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 03:06 UTC
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market measures whether the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secures the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) wins across 22 specific Taiwanese cities, special municipalities, and counties in the 2026 local elections. Notably, ties are broken alphabetically by the party's English name.
The market resolves Yes if official DPP candidates win the most mayoral and magistrate elections across the 22 listed cities, special municipalities, and counties, or if the DPP wins an alphabetical tiebreaker among tied leaders. Candidates must be officially nominated and registered with the party to count; independents do not count. The market resolves No if another party wins the most positions or wins the alphabetical tiebreaker. The market resolves to Other if no election results are known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A party is declared the winner as soon as it is mathematically impossible for another party to match or exceed its wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) if ambiguity exists.
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission (CEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·