Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly list all 22 qualifying mayoral and magistrate jurisdictions and define what constitutes an official party candidate.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly list all 22 qualifying mayoral and magistrate jurisdictions and define what constitutes an official party candidate. Resolution can occur early if mathematical certainty is reached before all official counts finish. If two or more parties tie for the highest number of wins, resolution does not split or void, but instead defaults to the party whose English name comes first alphabetically. Outcomes rely on reported consensus with the Central Election Commission database serving as the decisive official source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether official candidates from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most mayoral and magistrate elections across Taiwan's major special municipalities, cities, and counties in the 2026 local elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if official candidates from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections among the 22 specified municipalities, cities, and counties, or if it wins a tie-breaker based on alphabetical order of the party's English name. Only candidates officially nominated by the party and registered with that affiliation count; independent candidates are excluded. The market resolves No if another party wins more of these elections, or wins via the alphabetical tie-breaker. The market resolves to Other if no election results are known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If only partial results are known by that date, resolution relies on the available results up to that point. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting, with the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Taiwanese government acting as the sole authority in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·