Weekly digest, 6 November 2026

The week's largest price moves on Polymarket, with the likely driver.

Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
▲ Up 83 points · Likely driver: Close to deadline
The price rose from 6% to 87% as the market approached its deadline, settling toward its likely outcome.
AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 12:20 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
▼ Down 72 points · Likely driver: Related outcomes
The price dropped sharply from 72% to 1% as part of a broader synchronized repricing across 5 related ceasefire outcome markets moving down together.
AI-generated · 3 Nov 2026, 02:05 UTC
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 8?
▼ Down 71 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market price dropped from 87% to 15% as Bitcoin fell 2.88% on Binance during the move hour (and down 5.54% over the window), making the $78,000 threshold significantly less likely to hold before the deadline.
AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 05:50 UTC
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 7?
▼ Down 70 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The market fell from 80% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 1.7% on Binance in the move hour, reducing the chance of finishing above $78,000 as the November 7 deadline neared.
AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?
▼ Down 45 points · Likely driver: Thin market
The price fell from 21% to 4%, with concentrated activity from 3 wallets across $82 in volume acting as a likely driver amid low liquidity.
AI-generated · 1 Nov 2026, 00:50 UTC

Markets closing in the next 7 days whose rules carry a High Gotcha risk.

How the most-traded markets resolved.