French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 57% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Apr 18, 2027 · $129.4K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which candidate will place second in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Each market corresponds to an individual candidate and measures whether that candidate will win the second-most valid votes.
How the outcomes relate
Markets in this event are structured with one outcome per candidate. Because the rules specify resolution based on the single candidate occupying the second-highest finishing position after tie-breaking, at most one candidate market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified candidate receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of the election. Candidates are primarily ranked by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names. If the result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior used if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Deadline of 11:59 PM ET to definitively determine the election result before resolving to 'Other'.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 57% | ▲ 1 | Low | Med | |
| David Lisnard | 18% | ▲ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Marine Le Pen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Édouard Philippe | — | — | Low | Med | |
| François Hollande | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Gabriel Attal | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Bruno Retailleau | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sarah Knafo | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Dominique de Villepin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Christine Lagarde | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Éric Zemmour | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Jordan Bardella | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sébastien Lecornu | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| François Ruffin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Marine Tondelier | — | — | Not rated | — |