Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has clear mechanics defining the winning condition as the candidate who secures the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The market has clear mechanics defining the winning condition as the candidate who secures the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Official figures from the French Ministry of the Interior serve as the definitive fallback resolution source if consensus reporting is ambiguous. Participants should note the specific tie-breaking rule, which resolves ties using the alphabetical order of candidates' full names as listed in the market, rather than official electoral tie-break procedures. Additionally, there is a backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are not definitive by that time.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Édouard Philippe will place second in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election by valid vote count, with any ties resolved by the alphabetical order of candidate names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Édouard Philippe receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. If two or more candidates tie, ties are broken alphabetically by their listed full names to determine the second-place finish. The market resolves to No if another candidate takes second place. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government / Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·