Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly specifies the criteria for resolution: the candidate securing the second-highest tally of valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly specifies the criteria for resolution: the candidate securing the second-highest tally of valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Official figures from the French Ministry of the Interior serve as the ultimate authority if reporting is unclear. The primary unusual mechanic to monitor is the artificial tie-breaking rule, which resolves exact ties by the alphabetical order of candidates' full names as listed in the market rather than by any official election procedure. Additionally, there is a long backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if official results are not definitively known.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
18%
chance▲ +2.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether David Lisnard will place second in valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if David Lisnard wins the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, applying alphabetical order of full names to break any ties. It resolves No if another candidate occupies the second-highest position under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or officially the French Government's Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·