Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate finishes with the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which candidate finishes with the second-most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Official figures from the French Ministry of the Interior serve as the ultimate determining authority if reporting consensus is unclear. A straightforward alphabetical tie-breaker is defined, and there is a generous resolution cutoff date of December 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
57%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon will finish in second place by valid vote count in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the second-most valid votes in the first round of the election. The market resolves to No if another candidate occupies that position. Candidates are ranked primarily by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of their listed full names. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with French Government Ministry of the Interior official results serving as the sole authority in cases of ambiguity.
Resolution source
French Government Ministry of the Interior, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·