Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide thorough definitions of what constitutes a qualifying general closure versus non-qualifying partial or localized restrictions, even citing specific historical precedents to illustrate qualifying and non-qualifying scenarios.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide thorough definitions of what constitutes a qualifying general closure versus non-qualifying partial or localized restrictions, even citing specific historical precedents to illustrate qualifying and non-qualifying scenarios. Clear exclusions are outlined for restrictions imposed by other countries, partial visual flight rule bans, or natural disaster causes. Resolution relies on Iranian aviation authorities alongside a consensus of credible reporting, introducing standard journalistic verification discretion, but the scope and criteria are well-bounded.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
14%
chance▲ +3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran initiates a general closure of its commercial airspace (Tehran FIR) by November 30, 2026, excluding closures caused solely by weather or specific natural disasters.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all commercial flights across all of Iran or the Tehran FIR, though limited exceptions (such as flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority) are permitted. Closures caused solely by weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions do not qualify. Restrictions imposed by other countries or airlines, as well as partial or regional closures, do not count. The market resolves to No if no such general closure occurs by the deadline. The resolution is decided using official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·