Maduro Prison Time?
5 live outcomes · highest priced: No prison time at 63% · first close Dec 31, 2027 · $1.1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome and duration of any prison sentence imposed on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the Southern District of New York indictment by December 31, 2027.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as mutually exclusive range brackets for the total prison sentence imposed on Nicolás Maduro. Exactly one bracket resolves Yes based on the first sentencing rendered, while all other brackets resolve No.
How it resolves
Resolution is based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing rendered in the case, regardless of appeals, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The 'No prison time' outcome resolves Yes if Maduro is found not guilty, if there is a mistrial, if the first sentence includes no jail or prison time, or if no sentencing takes place by the deadline. If a sentence falls exactly between brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. Life imprisonment resolves to the highest bracket. Whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive does not affect resolution.
Key dates
- Indictment date: — Date Nicolás Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which sentencing must occur; otherwise resolves to 'No Prison Time' at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prison time | 63% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 60+ | 24% | ▲ 6 | Med | Low | |
| 40–60 | 5% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| <20 | 4% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| 20–40 | 2% | ±0 | Med | Med |