Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the total prison term imposed at the initial sentencing in the specified federal court case by December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the total prison term imposed at the initial sentencing in the specified federal court case by December 31, 2027. If no sentencing occurs by that deadline, or if there is an acquittal, mistrial, or sentence without prison time, the market resolves to 'No Prison Time' rather than an indeterminate outcome. Sentences falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher range, and life sentences resolve to the highest bracket regardless of numerical conversion. The resolution relies primarily on official U.S. court or government records, but permits a consensus of credible reporting as a backup.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is sentenced to a prison term between 20 and 40 years under a specified U.S. federal indictment by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the first total prison sentence imposed on Nicolás Maduro relating to the specified indictment is between 20 and 40 years. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the sentence falls outside this range, if Maduro receives no prison time, is found not guilty, a mistrial occurs, or no sentencing occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Life imprisonment resolves to the highest range bracket. Resolution happens immediately upon the first sentence rendered, regardless of appeals or whether the sentence runs concurrently or consecutively. Official information from the U.S. court system or involved U.S. government sources serves as the primary source, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary option.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·