Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This binary question represents one bracket in a multi-outcome structure, and its rules contain several specific mechanics that could surprise participants.
Read the full assessment
This binary question represents one bracket in a multi-outcome structure, and its rules contain several specific mechanics that could surprise participants. If Maduro is not sentenced by the December 31, 2027 deadline, is acquitted, or receives a mistrial, the market defaults to resolving as 'No Prison Time' rather than voiding, which means this specific bracket would resolve to 'No'. Additionally, if a sentence falls on an exact boundary between brackets, the rules stipulate resolving to the higher range bracket, and life sentences automatically map to the highest bracket. Official U.S. court documents serve as the primary source, though reporting consensus is permitted as a fallback. Immediate resolution upon the first sentencing ignores any subsequent appeals or sentence modifications.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro is sentenced to a total prison term between 40 and 60 years in his Southern District of New York indictment case by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro receives a total prison sentence between 40 and 60 years in the specified SDNY indictment case by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If an imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves immediately based on the first sentence rendered, regardless of any appeals, and regardless of whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to an existing sentence. The market resolves to No if the sentence falls into another bracket or if it resolves to No Prison Time due to a not guilty verdict, mistrial, a sentence with no jail time, or no sentencing occurring by the deadline. If sentenced to life without a specified numerical term, it resolves to the highest bracket. Official information from the United States court system or U.S. government sources decides resolution, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·