Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules appear to be copied from a multi-bracket contract (referencing brackets like 'No Prison Time' and 'highest range bracket') applied to a binary Yes/No question asking about a threshold of at least 60 years.
Read the full assessment
The rules appear to be copied from a multi-bracket contract (referencing brackets like 'No Prison Time' and 'highest range bracket') applied to a binary Yes/No question asking about a threshold of at least 60 years. While it explicitly handles edge cases like life sentences counting as the highest bracket, and resolves on the first sentencing regardless of appeals, a reader should note that failing to sentence Maduro by the December 31, 2027 deadline defaults the market to no prison time (No). The primary decider is official U.S. court documentation, with credible media consensus serving as a fallback.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
24%
chance▲ +5.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro receives a prison sentence of at least 60 years in his Southern District of New York indictment case. It uniquely resolves immediately upon the first sentencing regardless of subsequent appeals, and treats a life sentence as the highest bracket.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro is sentenced to at least 60 years in prison in the specified Southern District of New York case by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A sentence of life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years also resolves to the highest range bracket. The market resolves to No if Maduro receives a sentence under 60 years, receives no prison time, is found not guilty, has a mistrial, or if no sentencing occurs by the deadline. Sentences resolve based on the first sentence rendered regardless of appeals, and concurrent or consecutive status does not matter. The primary resolution source is official information from the United States court system or involved U.S. government sources, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as a fallback.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States court system or involved U.S. government sources, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·