Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes officially holding the position of head of state of Venezuela at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes officially holding the position of head of state of Venezuela at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). Explicit exclusions outline scenarios such as unconfirmed nominees, expired terms, and unofficial acting capacities. The resolution hierarchy is clearly specified, starting with official government announcements, falling back to the linked United Nations protocol directory if the government position is unclear, and using a consensus of credible reporting only as a final resort.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Padrino López will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Padrino López officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, designated with a future effective date, former officeholders whose terms expired, unofficial consultants, or successors not yet appointed do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the role, or if no individual holds the position, resolving to 'No Head of State'. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or the first to assume the role determines the resolution. Resolution is decided using official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with UN listings and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, with UN listings and a consensus of credible reporting as fallbacks
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·