Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a precise snapshot timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and clearly define what qualifies as officially holding the role of head of state.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a precise snapshot timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and clearly define what qualifies as officially holding the role of head of state. Resolution relies on official government sources and an explicit link to the United Nations protocol directory as a primary fallback if governmental records are disputed or unclear. Standard tie-breaking rules and an extensive list of non-qualifying arrangements, such as interim, advisory, or oversight roles, are detailed directly in the text.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela at 12 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, having been formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Individuals merely nominated, announced with future effective dates, holding oversight roles, serving unofficially, or whose terms ended prior do not qualify. It resolves to No if another individual holds the position, or resolves to 'No Head of State' if nobody holds it. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earlier assumption date decides. Official information from the UN-recognized Venezuelan government decides; if unclear, UN listings and credible reporting consensus decide.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the UN, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·