Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules provide clear and objective standards for determining the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules provide clear and objective standards for determining the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The criteria explicitly define what constitutes officially holding office, including swearing-in and formal confirmation, while outlining extensive exclusions for interim, unofficial, or pending appointments. In the event of competing claims or ambiguity from domestic authorities, the rules specify an explicit fallback hierarchy pointing to official United Nations protocol records.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. The market resolves to No if another individual holds the position, or if Pete Hegseth is merely nominated, has an effective date after the cutoff, previously served but left office, serves unofficially, is named successor, or holds an oversight role. If no individual holds the position, the market resolves to "No Head of State". If multiple individuals are listed, the one with primary status or who first assumed office resolves the market. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela decides the outcome, with UN listings and credible reporting used as fallbacks.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, UN listings, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·