Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly establish an exact timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET to determine the head of state of Venezuela.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly establish an exact timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET to determine the head of state of Venezuela. The criteria for what constitutes officially holding the role are thoroughly defined, including clear exclusions for acting, nominated, or unofficial roles. Resolution relies primarily on official communications from the UN-recognized Venezuelan government, backed by a direct link to the United Nations official protocol list of heads of state as a structured fallback, leaving little room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan Caine officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Caine officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET by being formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are only nominated, announced, serving in an unofficial capacity, appointed with a future effective date, or whose term expired do not qualify. The market resolves to No if Dan Caine is not the official head of state at that time. If no individual holds the position, it resolves to No Head of State. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earlier assumption date decides. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to the UN Head of State list and credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the UN Protocol and Liaison Service list, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·