Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and structured criteria for determining the head of state at an exact timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and structured criteria for determining the head of state at an exact timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with a specific fallback link to the UN Protocol and Liaison Service list if the government position is unclear. Extensive explicit exclusions clarify that nominations, unfinalized appointments, expired terms, and advisory roles do not qualify, minimizing ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Richard Grenell will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Richard Grenell officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. Individuals merely nominated, designated, named as successor, serving unofficially or as a consultant, holding a different oversight role, or whose term expired, resigned, or begins after the deadline do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual or no one holds the office. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earlier assumption determines the holder. If no individual holds the position, it resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is decided by official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to UN protocol listings and credible reporting consensus.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to the United Nations and credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·