0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines how the outcome will be measured, linking directly to the official Federal Reserve website as the sole resolution source.
This market clearly defines how the outcome will be measured, linking directly to the official Federal Reserve website as the sole resolution source. It specifies that the target rate will be taken from the statement issued after the December 2026 FOMC meeting, with a clear year-end fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if no statement is released. Explicit rounding rules (to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in case of a tie) prevent boundary ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
3%
chance▲ +0.65 pts · 24h
The probability fell from 24% to 10%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 09:50 UTC
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be 4.0% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Resolution includes a rounding rule where rates are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero in exact ties.
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting rounds to 4.0%. The rate is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero if it falls exactly between two options. The market resolves to No if the resulting rounded rate is any value other than 4.0%. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the upper bound in effect at that time. Official information from the Federal Reserve decides the outcome.
Federal Reserve official information
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·