Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a clearly designated official source, the Federal Reserve, to determine the target federal funds range following the December 2026 meeting.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a clearly designated official source, the Federal Reserve, to determine the target federal funds range following the December 2026 meeting. The rules clearly define how the metric is calculated, specify an explicit rounding rule to the nearest 25 basis points (including tie-breaking away from zero), and provide a fixed fallback deadline of December 31, 2026, if the statement is delayed. There is minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market explained
This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range will be 1.25% following the FOMC meeting in December 2026, using standard rounding to the nearest 25 basis points with half-steps rounding away from zero.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds range is 1.25% after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The upper bound is rounded to the nearest 25 basis points, rounding away from zero if it falls exactly halfway between options. The market resolves to No if the resulting rate is any other value. If no FOMC decision for the December meeting is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on the prevailing upper bound at that time. The primary resolution source is official information from the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·