Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the valuation formula and anchor the measurement to 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the valuation formula and anchor the measurement to 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, the resolution source is described only as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or price oracle, which requires discretion if price or volume metrics differ across venues. Additionally, participants must account for an extended timeline, as the market remains open until December 31, 2027, resolving to No if no qualifying token launch occurs by that date.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
93%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $300M exactly one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $300M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $300M at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·