Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify an exact measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, calculating FDV as total supply multiplied by the token price.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify an exact measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, calculating FDV as total supply multiplied by the token price. However, the resolution source is defined only as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. If the valuation is near the $1B mark at the snapshot time, resolving the outcome requires discretion to identify which platform was the most liquid and what its exact price was. A long backstop date of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to No if no token launches before then.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
56%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $1 billion one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $1 billion at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·