Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation method and the exact measurement time at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a longstop deadline resolving to No if no token launches by December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation method and the exact measurement time at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a longstop deadline resolving to No if no token launches by December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is vaguely defined as the most liquid price source available rather than a named price aggregator or exchange. If total supply figures vary across trackers or if price diverges across trading venues near the valuation threshold, the resolver must exercise judgement to identify the most liquid venue and applicable supply figure.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Variational's governance token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $200 million exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than $200M one day after launch, specifically evaluated at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $200M at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·