Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines the exact measurement time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and specifies the valuation formula as total token supply multiplied by token price.
Read the full assessment
The market defines the exact measurement time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and specifies the valuation formula as total token supply multiplied by token price. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a dedicated tracker or exchange, leaving the decider to determine which platform qualifies as most liquid. Additionally, finding the official total supply figure depends on project announcements or on-chain data that may vary across trackers at launch. A clear expiration deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to No if no launch takes place.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $100M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $100M at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·