Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes capture by referencing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, specifying the exact qualifying map layers, coordinates, and visual border thresholds.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes capture by referencing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, specifying the exact qualifying map layers, coordinates, and visual border thresholds. Control must persist across at least one full daily update cycle to count, and once full control is established, subsequent loss does not invalidate a positive resolution. A clear fallback hierarchy to DeepStateMap and credible reporting exists if the primary source becomes unavailable. Additionally, actual physical control resulting from a negotiated settlement qualifies even without map updates. These explicit mechanics leave minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▲ +2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will capture the entire municipality of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026, primarily assessed via mapping by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the entirety of Kostyantynivka is shaded under qualifying layers on the ISW map between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying layers are Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain and Assessed Russian Advances, while Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas and Claimed Russian Territory do not qualify. Shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Russia taking actual control via a negotiated settlement also qualifies for Yes, but an announcement granting de jure control alone does not. Subsequent loss of control after meeting the condition is disregarded. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the specified deadline. The primary decider is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary fallback and a consensus of credible reporting as a final fallback.
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·