Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide explicit, objective criteria tied directly to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, defining the exact municipal layer, precise coordinates, and which map layers count or do not count toward capture.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide explicit, objective criteria tied directly to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, defining the exact municipal layer, precise coordinates, and which map layers count or do not count toward capture. A persistence requirement of one full daily update cycle prevents premature resolution on map glitches, and early resolution applies as soon as full capture is confirmed. Backup sources and fallback procedures are clearly established in hierarchical order if the primary map becomes unavailable, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by June 30, 2027, according to designated mapping sources.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the entire municipality of Kostyantynivka is shaded under qualifying layers ('Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances') on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, and the shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Minor border alignment gaps do not prevent a Yes resolution. Actual control gained via a negotiated settlement also qualifies for Yes, but mere de jure announcements without actual control do not. Once met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. Infiltration areas and claimed territory layers do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the specified date. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source, and credible reporting consensus as a fallback if both are unavailable.
Resolution source
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·