Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution hinges on who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title, formal appointment, or foreign recognition at the specific timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
Resolution hinges on who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title, formal appointment, or foreign recognition at the specific timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine subjective criteria—such as effective control over the military, ministries, and core infrastructure—the decider must evaluate qualitative reporting rather than referencing an official government registry or legal proclamation. If authority is fragmented, contested, or nonexistent at the deadline, the rules instruct resolution to a specific fallback outcome of no head of state.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hassan Shariatmadari will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026, focusing on actual governing authority rather than formal titles or recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Hassan Shariatmadari de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This includes effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal appointment, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds this authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·