Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution does not rely on an official government gazette, constitutional title, or international recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority over Iran at the precise timestamp of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
Resolution does not rely on an official government gazette, constitutional title, or international recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority over Iran at the precise timestamp of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. While the rules list explicit indicators of control such as command of the armed forces and administration of state ministries, determining effective control during potential political instability is subjective. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, leaving room for interpretation if the political situation on the ground is contested or fragmented.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Maryam Rajavi is the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026, focusing on effective territorial and governing control rather than formal titles or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Maryam Rajavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires primary governing control, including control over armed forces, executive institutions, and core infrastructure; formal appointment or foreign recognition is not required, while purely symbolic status or foreign recognition without domestic control does not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds de facto authority. The market resolves to No Head of State if no individual exercises effective governing control. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·