Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on identifying who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET rather than who holds a formal constitutional title or international recognition.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on identifying who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET rather than who holds a formal constitutional title or international recognition. Because the rules set aside official appointments in favor of practical control over security forces, executive ministries, and infrastructure, the outcome depends on subjective judgment rather than an official registry. Furthermore, no specific official authority or named data feed is designated to decide; instead, resolution hinges on a consensus of credible reporting to determine who held effective power at the exact deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Seyed Hossein Mousavian will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution relies on actual governing control over state institutions and armed forces rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Seyed Hossein Mousavian de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. Formal title, appointment, or foreign recognition is not required. Symbolic status or nomination without effective domestic control does not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control. If no one exercises effective control, it resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·