Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on evaluating de facto governing power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition at a specific timestamp: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on evaluating de facto governing power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition at a specific timestamp: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or designated authority, the market decider must interpret journalistic accounts regarding who exercised effective control over Iran's security apparatus, ministries, and capital. In a scenario involving contested power, factional conflict, or government collapse, determining whether a specific claimant meets these qualitative control criteria introduces notable interpretive leeway.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Reza Pirzadeh will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026, measured strictly by actual domestic governing authority rather than formal titles, foreign recognition, or constitutional status.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Reza Pirzadeh de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires exercising primary governing control, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, core executive decisions, and the capital, regardless of formal appointment or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if Reza Pirzadeh is not the individual exercising this authority at that time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·