Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market hinges on whether the named individual de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The market hinges on whether the named individual de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules provide specific indicators for de facto authority, such as control over armed forces, ministries, and core infrastructure, disregarding formal titles or international recognition. However, the resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or designated authority, which grants considerable latitude to the resolver to judge who holds effective power, especially if leadership is fragmented or contested at the deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mustafa Hijri is the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution focuses on real governing authority and control rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mustafa Hijri de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This requires primary governing authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, core executive decisions, and state infrastructure, regardless of formal appointment or foreign recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control at that time. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting serves as the primary resolution source.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·