Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market does not rely on formal constitutional titles or official appointments, defining the head of state strictly by de facto exercise of primary governing authority and control over security services and institutions.
Read the full assessment
This market does not rely on formal constitutional titles or official appointments, defining the head of state strictly by de facto exercise of primary governing authority and control over security services and institutions. Because resolution depends on a qualitative assessment of power rather than an official registry or officeholder list, any political crisis, shared leadership arrangement, or contested succession requires subjective interpretation. Furthermore, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to judge who holds effective control at the specific snapshot time of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, giving the resolving entity wide latitude to evaluate conflicting media reports.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- High
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sadegh Mahsouli will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Unusually, resolution relies on demonstrable, effective governing control rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sadegh Mahsouli de facto holds and exercises the primary governing authority and powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of formal title or recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority or if Mahsouli holds only symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired service. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. Resolution will be decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·