Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market specifies a precise evaluation time of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, but determination relies on evaluating de facto authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official government appointments.
Read the full assessment
The market specifies a precise evaluation time of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, but determination relies on evaluating de facto authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official government appointments. If leadership is contested or power is fragmented, judging who holds primary executive control over the armed forces and state apparatus requires subjective evaluation. Resolution depends entirely on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or named institutional authority. A fallback condition is included to resolve to a neutral outcome if no individual exercises clear control.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hassan Rouhani de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. It prioritizes effective governing authority and domestic control over formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hassan Rouhani de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran at the specified time, including control over armed forces, executive institutions, and decision-making, regardless of formal appointment or foreign recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority. The market resolves to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·